Making decisions
(Originally published on the OUBS Blog)
How are decisions made and can we do a structured approach on them?
Past decisions as well as future ones will effect the ones we make today. We are concerned with the process that begins with recognition of the need to make a decision, establishing the outcome and identifies the choices as well as the consequences.
A structured approach to making decisions would be the following:
1.) identification and definition
a. Drucker (1955) commented: “The most common source of mistakes in management decisions is the emphasis on finding the right answer rather than the right questions.�
2.) Setting objectives (SMART)
3.) Optional appraisal and decision making
a. Once the decision has been made it is important to document it to provide an accurate record.
b. Pay attention to: financials, risk, resources
c. Identify uncertainties
d. User experience and computer models to predict probability
4.) Communication and implementation
5.) Monitoring and control
There are several limitations of the structured approach and one that is already mentioned a lot is that managers have to be satisficing!
de Bono (1982) has some ideas to get around the problems like execution speed.
\- A modified structured approach (simplify)
\- A less than ideal approach (but as close as possible. Visualise ideal)
\- An intuitive approach (decide intuitive and then justify, then do)
\- A negative approach (factor out bad solutions)
\- A changing circumstances approach (forecast)
There are several techniques to help you find new ways for better solutions.
Lateral thinking is about freeing your mind to be stimulated into unpredictable and unaccustomed flights of imagination. All judgement should be suspended until a lot of ideas have been generated.
A very similar approach to this would be brainstorming which should allow your brain to work more freely than usual where the idea-generation stage is separated from the evaluation-stage. The wildest idea technique within this, described by Rawlinson (1981), takes one or two of the most off-beat and possibly senseless ideas trying to turn them into useful ones, generating even more ideas. Another more structured approach would be to give everyone a ticket so everyone has their turn or do it in four stages (Define, Redefine for new perspective, generate ideas, evaluate ideas). Brainstorming can be very complex and not easy to apply. Everybody in the team needs to be very open and members of the group should bring in different experiences and expertises.
On we go with lists (Advantages, Disadvantages), Matrices (2 dimensions with different choices and what is a criteria), Decision Tree (where do I really make them), Cause and effect diagrams (fishbone diagram)