Monthly Archives: May 2007

Some Stories waiting posting

As there are some things I’d like to link to I’ll just aggregate them right here to finally get them out of the way. :)

First of all, the Pirate Bay Legal page is a real fun to read. As a background, they run their torrent servers in a country where hosting the torrent files that point to files of copyrighted material is just not illegal and so they are fully in the green for doing what they do. Their answers are to the point :)

Qype had a relaunch and I really like it. Congratulations to the people behind it. Very nice indeed. Technorati also had a very good relaunch and especially of note is the new Technorati Search page. I have to admit that after having been a member since 2003 I am really using Technorati more and more. It just happens very often that you want to know what people are saying right now and there the search is just a nice interface. Next up is the Xing Marketplace which is really nicely done and I am looking forward to seeing how it develops. Still need to play with it though.

When you want to start a new coding project, I suggest taking a look at Springloops if you do not have your own servers for development or even if you do, because it looks awfully well done. Setting something like this up is not an easy task, especially if you move to the Garden version and can set up automatic deployments. Our system now consists of live, staging, dev and integration servers, where the integration server checks trunk for changes in short cycles and automatically deploys the software, sending out alerts for failed tests. It even blames people via svn of errors ;) But we built it ourselves, just having the knowledge in the team.

On another note, Jeremy just cannot quit with Desktop Tower Defense. I can understand that ;)

Review: Dyson DC 08 T Animalpro

or how to really suck! I was weary I have to say. Buying a vacuum cleaner is really nothing that should cost a lot of money and you can probably get one for well under 100 EURs. But somehow there is this company called Dyson that makes vacuum cleaners that are just cool. I actually had one case study about Dyson during the MBA course and it really took some time for the founder to convince people that this was a good idea. I mean look at how ugly their hand vacuum is!
I for one was just in the market for a new vacuum cleaner and being a geek, all this centrifuge and other mambo jumbo obviously appealed to me. Having cats added to the fact that I really needed to take a look at Dyson and I now wound up buying the Dyson DC 08 T Animalpro (links at the end). This has a special system against cat hair and a filter against allergies. The standard price here in Germany is 519 EURs! What the F***! That is probably your first reaction. I can buy a MacMini for that the second one. :)
I actually got it 330 EURs from Amazon. Still a lot but not 519. And then it arrived, as always ugly as hell, amazing color, and home it went. The weekend was the time of trying it out and oh the wonder. This thing does put cleaning on a different level, the air even smells differently afterwards. The only scary thing is that you are wondering if you lived in a pigs place because of the amount of dirt it picks up even if you used your old vacuum cleaner before. It’s also not too heavy at 8 kg and comes with lots of fine extras for cleaning your car and stuff.
All in all I do not regret it one bit. It’s expensive but it is worth it. And that you have to empty the dust by hand is something that you will get used to and it is actually well solved to be easy.
Now to try to see if there is any meaningful amount of money to be made from affiliate product links, I hereby present you the direct links to my Amazon aStores. And yes, this is a real review, I am not making this up and I really think the product is good. USA Store (mine does not exist there, this is a similar one) – German Store 

More Thoughts on Microsoft and the Banner Market

Now this was interesting. I posted about the Banner Server Market Changing early in the day and a few hours later, Microsoft bought aQuantive for $6 billion. This resulted in my post being quoted on alarm:clock and linked on techmeme.

The interesting thing is that there is no big banner server provider left really. There is Tribal Fusion as  Venturebeat posts. That doesn’t really fit though I have to say. Tribal Fusion is not the same as DoubleClick or Atlas or Ad Tech. Those are banner server providers and Tribal Fusion is a network, so it would not be what Microsoft needs. As I said in my last post, there are a few small ones left, but no big ones with huge customer contacts and big potential ad impressions handeled. Remember that DoubleClick does not really sell ads on the spaces it handles on publisher sites, but is just a technology providers. Same for Ad Tech bought by AOL and same for large parts of aQuantive, Atlas namely.

As some have already put it, this is for MS to stay in the game. They don’t want to go to Google, AOL or Yahoo for running banners on their properties. So this was a must buy. Just imaging Yahoo! buying them or another agency like WPP buying 24/7 Real Media just now. This would be hell.

The best comparison of the buying action I have seen on Pauls blog coming from zenrob. The important thing is the money spent per ad impression served.

  • Google/Doubleclick: $0.0107
  • WPP/24/7: $0.0032
  • Microsoft/aQuantive: $0.0272
  • Yahoo!/Right Media: $0.0142

For me the Right Media deal doesn’t really fit in here because this is a mix between a network and a service providers, really more of a market place and actually very close to my VISA model, so I do really like the Right Media buy. Best one of them all as a gut feeling.

But anyway, as you see, Microsoft paid a real premium for aQuantive, but they did so to have a very big foot in the market, and really in three. For one they now have Atlas as a banner server system for agencies and publishers, DRIVEpm as an arbitrage system buying ad spaces in bulk and then running performance based campaigns over them (can be very lucrative business, I know, but might become dangerous as people want to buy into those spaces that publishers could get to buy standard CPM deals, but that’s another post), and avenue a razorfish an interactive agency. Microsoft is now a bigger ad play than they were before and they need that knowledge to exploit the hell out of all the properties they will have soon. DoubleClick on the other hand was bought for the relationship with agencies only, because the technology is just not that amazing (actually the interface was so damn slow when I used it it was a pain).

If you want to read a few more posts I suggest going over to this alarm:clock post with a roundup of views of other people.

And by the way, I think DRIVEpm is a large part of that deal, because it is how you can push search ads on sites. But let’s see where it goes.

The Banner Server Market is Changing

(Update: A few hours after I wrote the following, Microsoft buys aQuantive, one of the last banner servers not owned by the big ones. See more at Techcrunch. I’ll keep the article as it is for now ;) It seems that all the big ones now have their Banner Server. )

There was a time when banner server companies were something special. You needed a DoubleClick (bought by Google) because if you used somebody else, the counting differences between the publisher banner server (DFP) and the agency banner server (DFA) would be too big and result in friction. I never really understood that part because it can be reasoned away, no longer being a problem, but it seems that it is too much of a pain to use a sometimes better banner server.

But I am loosing focus. More Banner Server Providers came along like Falk eSolutions (bought by DoubleClick) whom I met ages ago in a pitch at the place I worked at back then. I have to say that they were technologically superior … oh but the counting differences. :) Then you have Ad Tech (now bought by AOL) and just yesterday WPP acquires 24/7 Real Media. With all the “bought by” behind the names it becomes clear that Banner Serving is a hot topic at the moment and that it will likely move to become even more of a commodity. After the last bubble (no we don’t have a bubble at the moment) prices have dropped considerably for what you pay in CPM for delivering your ads. The problem of course is that the potential companies to work with are thinning slowly bug surely (unless you want WPP, Google or AOL be your Banner Server Providers ;) ) so these prices might increase again. A few are left though like Adition here in Germany which seems to be a good solution, and of course OpenAds. Then there is the mightly aQuantive with Atlas Solutions and also emediate. There are likely others I forgot (leave a comment) and of course there are lots of targeting companies at the moment that just plug in to a banner server, like wunderloop. Above that there are the market places like Right Media (bought by Yahoo!) who have a great demo by the way!

Lots of companies out there, all growing well, and things are moving closer together. Companies are slowly seeing that internet is core to what they do and they are investing into that. The best sign of that is WPP going into the Banner Serving Space.

The problem is that simple banner serving is no longer special. Service is what distinguishes and special features above the standard. Having built one specialized banner server already, and now building another system I would call a solution rather than a server, I can tell you that building your own can make sense in many cases. Especially if like us you have the knowledge in-house including one of the original Falk eSolutions developers. This is especially true if you need something different than a standard top of the fold big size banner.

And this is where the space will likely be moving in the future. We need APIs more than ever in this space as there will be more small systems, specialized for the portals they are used on, as well as some big players with lots of power behind them. We need a real market place not created for making money but for facilitating performance. This is a performance play people! We can measure things and as soon as we can we do we are moving in the performance mode. Currently this is the internet space, but it will become standard in many other places because rather sooner than later (probably later and bigger because we always overestimate but that’s another point ;) ) lots of things will become measurable. Digital Paper, TV with a backchannel.

I really see a VISA like structure to be established as a non-profit. Problem is that only the good ones would win. Transparency would be king. And we are not there yet. We are still in the wining and dining business and it’s probably going to remain that way for some time. But it’s good seeing the buying action because it shows that things are changing and ad serving is becoming central to the strategy of the big ones. That opens us up for new thinking. Looking forward to it. But first I need to revolutionize the local market. :)

HP and HALO and real Teleconferencing

John has a great post online about HP’s HALO system, used for teleconferencing and just looking at the images makes you drool. Just take a look.
It’s really what Apple is trying to do on your laptop but using real hardware (with real costs ;) ) and 4 42″ LCD Screens to create an environment where you feel you are sitting at the table with the other people. A round table around the world. Very cool.

Enyclopedia of Life

Encyclopedia of Life is an ecosystem of websites that makes all key information about life on Earth accessible to anyone, anywhere in the world. 
And they do have a very cool video presentation on their site about what they are about to do. Wonderfully done, very well explained.

The Shoppero Hype

We have a start-up in town and it’s called Shoppero. The general idea of a user driven review system, sharing the revenue with the users, allowing widgets to be placed on web sites with your review, … all that is good and I can see this thing succeed to some extent. The problem is that it is (was?) way over-hyped. We all know that Nico is very optimistic about the future and with Jens Kunath joining in, things are sure to get hot in the current investment climate. Underpromise and Overdeliver guys.

In times such as these, it is no failure to fall short of realizing all that we might dream, – the failure is to fall short of dreaming all that we might realize. We must try. – Dee Hock

They are going in the right direction, even though we already hear of all the problems, first and foremost huge holes in the platform. Werblogger wrote some things together and also pointed to this post on thinkphp about the big XSS hacks. Werblogger also pointed to the problem of the general rules of the platform, but Nico already corrected the point that they will not use your email for spamming. Didn’t expect that and I know that you will write your rules a bit more carefully if you are in a hurry.
But they need to be fast, because the platform is fairly simple to build. Hell, they did it in 6 weeks for a first release. Signing up you will get an Amazon aStore for example, but that is very easy to build and it took me a few minutes (store in german for now). Of course they will connect more affiliate systems but Amazon is really working on having almost everything available, so you are mostly fine there. And if you are big enough to turn any meaningful revenue for other stuff, you can do that too. Of course, this is long tail, but as said, this thing could work.
It just comes to the biggest problem I see with their communication strategy. They are saying that you will make more money with it. Jens had a long post about traffic optimization. The general idea is to give the user what he wants as an ad, and that even Google AdSense is not relevant enough in many case. Why is relevance so important? Because it will lead to higher click through rates. I can even totally attest to that because I have run performance marketing systems for some time now. Now Jens argues that through Shoppero bloggers will be able to get higher revenues than by other means at the moment. Sadly, there it brakes for me. That is total nonsense.
It’s a pretty simple calculation really. You can get a 1% CTR and more on AdSense if you place them right. Now let’s presume you are making $1 CPM on AdSense through this. That means that 1000 impressions lead to 10 clicks worth $0.1 each. That is not a lot and you can probably go higher, but lets be conservative. Now let’s look at my last 10 posts to see how relevant my ads are. I have router management and dsl ads on my Fonera post, the unddu.de post has social networking in there, my first post about mymuesli.com has VC stuff and the VOIP via Mobile post has lot of fitting VoIP links. All in all very fitting and nothing in there that would lead to a higher click through rate in my mind if I had linked my Canon EOS 350D or Nokia E70 or some Books or Wine or any other product. I mean Fon is linked anyway, mymuesli too and stuff like Jajah and Cellity are linked to. Nothing for Shoppero to earn there unless they change my links which I won’t let them do.
But let’s presume I do post about the Nokia E70 and how much I like it. Let’s presume that 1000 people read it (probably $1 earned via AdSense, possibly more as there would be other high paying E70 links). As the direct link to an E70 it might have a better CTR and let’s presume that it is 5%. Most of those would probably not even want to read a review (they just did) but get more info on the E70. The many people that don’t know me, are very unlikely to do an impulse buy of a phone (or any product) and will probably continue to think about it. Those that do know me, will probably send an email to get more views, pretty similar to how Jens bought his E61. In any case, many will not buy in a trackable manner but somewhere else. Knowing conversion rates of special landing pages for free services, I do not think that they will get conversions anywhere near or above 1% from after the click. And if I then get $10 for the sale, I would get 60% of the $5 made, meaning $3.
This obviously is more (5% is a high CTR! 2% and you are lower) but the problem is that it presumes that every post I do has a fitting review to it. That is surely not the case and if it is 1 to 10 than it is a high ratio. Suddenly I am only making 30 cents. Of course I am also making money on the stuff that Shoppero lists on their site (20%) but Squidoo tried that too and failed. Above that, suddenly it is no longer about making money via my blog but almost free for Shoppero. Above that I have work as I need to create the widget and it’s not ala AdSense where you put the code on your site and you are done. Sure, review bloggers can make money, but they also can with linking to Amazon directly or joining other Affiliate Systems. And yes, you are also making money on other stuff Shoppero makes money with, like AdSense, but I am pretty sure that you are making more integrating AdSense on your blog directly than by loosing people through click through rates and through an additional revenue share.
Jens actually suggests adding an adget (how they call their ads) on the right side of your blog which means that CTRs are way lower than at the end of the article (I know). It’s also no longer context sensitive, which is the entire point. As a short background, I have run AdSense similar ads for services on some of the biggest publishers and am doing that again, and we did beat out Google AdSense (and are doing it again with Ormigo for relevant traffic). The more interesting thing is though that one publishers opted to put links from a big affiliate system at the same spot (good for them, you need to try stuff out!) but stopped doing it after a very short time even though they probably got way bigger commissions than normally or rather good CPM without consideration for conversion (which is why the affiliate system stopped doing it :) ).
The thing is that sales are just barely trackable on the net. Too much moves outside the tracking system. I would be very happy to be proved wrong, because we need something more for blogs. We are moving the same direction with Ormigo, going more long tail on the advertising system, but first need to increase the breadth of offerings where we can create customer contacts (which are instantly trackable). It’s hard. Blogs are very diverse, and relevance is a must.
As a summary. I think for special niche blogs or for pages with reviews, Shoppero might make sense. Then it might be too much work for the hassle though. I’ll probably add an Amazon aStore to the right side of the blog soon to try it out (too much US traffic that Shoppero can’t handle and OpenAds can do the targeting for me for Germany and other Traffic.)
Good luck with your start-up, it’s interesting times.
Update: There are other things than only monetary reward for using a system. This is something that Shoppero can play, because they are the nice guys. One of their biggest benefits that is. :)


PHP based Intrusion Detection System

This is one of the first things that Mario started to implement when he arrived here at Ormigo. It’s now called phpids and available for all to use, already gaining some traction with the security crowd. The thing is that we are dealing with lots of personal data here at Ormigo, so we want to try to make as sure as possible that it’s safe.
What the phpids does is listen in on strange requests coming into a php based application and gives them a certain escalation state. Based on state it can choose, or rather be told to, do certain things, like fully deny access from a certain IP, remove the page for that user and only show a warning, do nothing and log, send our email alerts, whatever. It’s there to make sure that you are not running blind. Holes in the application are sure to happen, but the biggest problem is not knowing about them.
You can check out the code right here on Google Code, or join the Google Group or simply do a Smoketest. Have fun and be sure to report back.
Since coming-out, there has been some international coverage already and this is just the start. Obviously this creates an overhead but hey, let’s see where it takes us, and from a management perspective you do need to calculate the potential costs of a breach of your application against the possible costs of a few more servers.
I am looking forward to seeing more people take it up and contribute back into the project.

Amazon S3 Pricing Changes

Damn they are good! Amazon has done a pricing upgrade to their S3 System. The new prices are effective for June 1st of this year and they probably found out how some people use S3. I have been raving about the system for some time already and so it is no wonder that we are using it at Ormigo.

As we are running large advertising campaigns around products that are interesting for local service providers, we need our ads solution to be both flexible and very scalable. Running ads on big portals means that your system needs to work. Previously I had worked together with Akamai, whom I still like very much, but they are rather expensive and some hits still come down to your servers. Above that it only really works well if you have a relatively high caching time.

Amazon S3 is a very cool middle thing in that it allows us to upload our ads to their system and not have any impact on our servers. Through the API we can automatically update the ads whenever we want. Additional flexibility will come when we lean more on EC2 as additional help, but we will see how this goes. For now I am very happy with what we have as a first step. And sure, S3 can go down, but you know what… so can our servers. At this time I am reasonably sure that S3 has more resources available to keep the servers up than we do. :)

How does the pricing change effect us though. Simple. Above the bandwidth charges they are adding per request charges, which is a logical thing. For us this will possibly add up to a bit more costs as ads are relatively small and mostly text based. Bandwidth prices for uploads are cut in half, and bandwidth prices for download are decreased a little bit dependent on volume you take.

Above that PUT and LIST requests will be $0.01 CPM and GET requests are $0.001 CPM. That is really ok I have to say and I actually like the system, which makes it more transparent and easier for Amazon to calculate profitably. Looking forward to seeing the next bill.

Digg to the Grave

The user generated content market got another lesson today, or rather Digg did. The thing is that somebody posted a story about how to crack the HD DVD algorithm and it obviously got lots of diggs. Digg then got a takedown notice and complied. Soon thereafter there were lots of stories on the front page again about the exact same things. Digg suspended users, deleted comments and posts, … nothing worked. First Jay posted trying to explain that they need to comply to the takedown notice. It only increased the onslaught of posts about the subject.
Now Kevin posted and they have given in to the users. The sad thing is, they might loose the company over this, but we’ll see. Here are Kevin’s (possibly) famous last words:
But now, after seeing hundreds of stories and reading thousands of comments, you’ve made it clear. You’d rather see Digg go down fighting than bow down to a bigger company. We hear you, and effective immediately we won’t delete stories or comments containing the code and will deal with whatever the consequences might be.
If we lose, then what the hell, at least we died trying.
There you see the power of user generated content and it’s not an easy thing to grasp. Are you just a conduit, just a platform for people to use? Can you be liable? It’s very difficult for all parties involved to understand that playing field and lots of “fun” stuff will probably happen in the next few months.

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